In early January, the Brown-Forman Corporation announced that it would be shuttering its Kentucky cooperage and laying off a significant portion of its global workforce. As the parent company for popular whiskey brands Jack Daniel’s, Old Forester, Woodford Reserve, GlenDronach, BenRiach, Glenglassaugh, and more, this news hit the whiskey world hard—and left many talented industry professionals suddenly facing unemployment.

Before the month’s end, the company popped up with more bad news: Glenglassaugh Distillery, home to Sandend, an award-winning single malt Scotch whisky expression, would also be closing—temporarily, at least. The Highlands distillery isn’t being mothballed, exactly, but its functional reality is shifting, with shared production and alternating silent seasons at BenRiach Distillery in the nearby town of Elgin.

While these announcements were no surprise to many industry experts, they came as a shock to many enthusiasts. Their appearance on the horizon of 2025 positioned them as harbingers of dread, with worse things possibly to come for the whiskey industry.

And worse things did come: tariffs. Tariffs imposed by the American government were quickly followed by retaliatory tariffs from other parts of the world, not to mention a clearing of shelves in Canadian retailers, where American spirits are now notably absent.

Over the last few months, numerous articles have popped up to debate whether the whiskey industry is doomed or thriving. The most remarkable thing about this ongoing discourse is its variety; economics are notoriously difficult to predict in the best of circumstances, but the reality of whiskey in 2025 seems particularly difficult to pin down, especially as the rules of the game change daily.

“The industry is exactly where it would have been without COVID,” said Kate Latts, Co-President of Heaven Hill Brands, at the James B. Beam Institute’s 2025 Industry Conference in Lexington, Kentucky. During a Distilling Leadership Panel moderated by Wine & Spirits Daily’s Executive Editor, Sarah Barrett, Latts shared the stage with Lawson Whiting, CEO of Brown-Forman and Greg Hughes, President of Suntory Global Spirits.

These three companies are giants in the industry, holding a massive piece of the global whiskey market share, and their CEOs and Presidents did not shy away from the difficult conversations at hand.

To underline her point, Latts talked about industry statistics and projections made in the years prior to COVID. If the inflated market of the pandemic had not happened, she explained, that data suggests that the industry would be in the same exact place.

Of course, the pandemic did happen, along with inflation, rising cost of living, and so many more issues that are much, much bigger than the whiskey industry. As the panel shared, the impacts of these challenges are magnified in the whiskey industry, given its three tiers of production and distribution: the consumer, the retailers and the distributors, and the distilleries themselves.

Even more, there are real people at every tier, and these changes impact far more than just their liquor cabinet—every expansion and contraction of the industry affects the people who produce, distribute, sell, and consume these spirits.

What’s Driving the Decline of Whiskey Consumption?

While the overall rate of whiskey consumption rose sharply in 2020, those numbers have recently dropped, and dropped dramatically. Fingers have been pointed at the increasing legalization of cannabis, use of GLP-1 products for weight loss, and the changing habits of Generation Z.

The reality is likely much more practical, said Lawson Whiting. In 2025, many people can’t afford the luxury of alcohol, at least not in the same way that they once could.

Economic Uncertainty

Five years ago, many people suddenly found themselves with an abundance of disposable income and few outlets through which to spend it. They bought everything they could get their hands on—and they were happy to pay for the privilege. Spirits brands could hardly keep up with the demand.

As purse strings tighten, consumers are becoming much more discerning.

While overall sales have slumped, sales of smaller-sized bottles have rocketed in the last year, said Whiting. He explained that this shift points to the idea that the desire for these products has not slipped as much as the budgets that allow people to afford them.

Premiumization has also suffered in recent months, with declining sales on limited release and high value bottles. Greg Hughes, President of Suntory Global Spirits, said that this shift is not because consumers have lost a taste for premium whiskeys, but because they’re being more careful with their purchases. The key to overcoming that spending hesitation, the panel said, is authenticity and quality.

Shifting Consumer Demand

While ready-to-drink cocktails, other canned drink options, and low- or no-alcohol options may not be the primary reason for whiskey’s current slowdown, their rise in the market cannot be ignored. Consumers are increasingly reaching for flavor and convenience, said Whiting.

Others, said Hughes, are experimenting with different ways to reach their consumption goals.

“Consumers want an experience,” he explained. The type of experience they’re seeking determines the type of drink they reach for.

Hughes suggested that these trends are less of a threat than an opportunity. Success in a changing market depends on the ability to innovate and deliver against those “need states”—whatever they may be. “We have an obligation to know and meet consumer interests,” he said.

Tariffs

With American spirits suddenly absent from Canadian shelves, and with the threat of tariffs looming over the global industry, tariffs pose a huge threat to the future of whiskey. The hope, said the panel, is that the ongoing tariffs war will be worked out before it becomes the problem it threatens to be—and they remain optimistic about that outcome.

And if not? Spirits brands will survive if they can stay agile and be prepared, said Hughes.

The problem with tariffs, he explained, is that they affect every segment of the whiskey industry ecosystem: consumers, retailers, restaurants and bars, wholesalers, and producers.

“We need all of them to be healthy for the bourbon industry to be healthy,” Hughes said.

The Whiskey Industry is Changing, Not Doomed

The art of supply and demand is ensuring that you have the right amount of product available for the people who want to buy it at the price you want to sell it. That number is, however, a moving target, especially in an industry that requires the amount of time that whiskey demands.

A perfect model is impossible, said Latts. As her father tells her, “You never have exactly the right amount.”

“Everyone is pulling back just a little bit,” said Whiting. “In COVID, everyone was short; now everyone is long.”

Essentially, the market is correcting itself—a natural occurrence after a period of instability. The COVID boom simply wasn’t sustainable over the long term.

There’s good news hidden in these shifts, too: despite the overarching decline of alcohol sales, American whiskey remains one of the fastest growing spirits category, trailing only behind tequila.

“Global consumers love American whiskey,” said Whiting. And while established markets may be slowing, they do not represent the total potential of the global whiskey sales. Even a small expansion in a promising market could represent big growth for the industry.

Sales for Boomers and Generation X haven’t changed all that much, either, offering some element of consistency in a changing market. Whiting described the whiskey market as LDA to DND—”legal drinking age to damn near dead.” Bringing younger consumers into the fold requires understanding how, why, and what they drink, and delivering on those needs and desires.

That doesn’t mean it’s not a challenging time for whiskey; layoffs and cutbacks have a real impact on individuals, their families, and their local economies. But the whiskey industry has been through far worse—prohibition ended less than 100 years ago, after all. It will continue to evolve and thrive, and all three panelists are optimistic for its future.

In the next five to ten years, Whiting predicts increasing globalization, tapping into those new geographic markets. For Latts, it’s a return to premiumization through innovation. For Hughes, it’s both—with a constant focus on quality, authenticity, and transparency.

We’ll drink to that.

Sláinte, y’all.

🥃 The Whisky Type is a self-funded project powered by equal parts curiosity, chaos, and whisky. If you’d like to support Carolyn’s questionable life choices and excellent content, buy her a dram! https://ko-fi.com/thewhiskytype